Global soils store more carbon than the atmosphere and terrestrial vegetation combined, with a significant proportion located in colder regions. Earth system models incorporating climate-carbon feedback suggest that a warming climate can potentially destabilize soil carbon storage, leading to carbon release into the atmosphere. However, existing models are based on limited measurements of soil organic carbon (SOC) loss and a comprehensive global-scale climate indices that effectively characterizes climate-SOC relationships is currently lacking. In this study, we present a synthetic analysis that evaluates the effectiveness of different climate indices in estimating SOC stocks using a global compilation of SOC data and the Boltzmann Sigmoidal Model (BSM). Our findings reveal that a climate index, defined as TD-Index=exp(−0.002T−0.8D), where T and D are mean century temperature (MCT) and dryness respectively, serves as the most reliable predictor for SOC stocks. Furthermore, we observed temperature tipping points for SOC, ranging from −4.5 to −3°C for different soil layers. As the temperature transitions from being below to above the tipping point, the SOC shifts from a stable, high state to a rapid decline. An analysis of the projected temperatures for SOC under various future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios showed a northward shift in the northern hemisphere, potentially opening up vast areas of arctic territory to increased SOC loss from the soils, with corresponding emissions of the stored carbon into the atmosphere. Our findings open up new avenues for research on and management strategies for climate-related SOC dynamics.

Qin Zhang

Chuixiang Yi

Georg Wohlfahrt

Deliang Chen

Max Rietkerk

Zhenkun Tian

Mousong Wu

Eric Kutter

Jianxu Han

George Hendrey

Shiguo Xu

Geografiska Annaler Series A Physical Geography

GEOGRAFISKA ANNALER：A 系列，自然地理学发表自然地理学领域的原创研究，特别强调寒冷地区/高纬度、高海拔过程、地貌和环境变化、过去、现在和未来。该杂志主要通过发表基于研究的文章来促进常规研究的传播。该杂志还发布主题问题，其中收集了围绕特定主题的文章集。此类主题由编辑根据要求确定。最后，该杂志希望通过受邀的评论文章来促进对自然地理学主题、其起源、发展和现状的认识和理解。

Geografiska Annaler, Series A: Physical Geography is a journal dedicated to the field of physical geography, publishing original research with a particular emphasis on processes, landforms, and environmental changes in cold regions, high latitudes, and high altitudes, covering past, present, and future studies. The journal primarily promotes the dissemination of regular research through the publication of research-based articles. Additionally, it publishes thematic issues that compile articles around specific topics, which are determined by the editors based on demand. Finally, the journal aims to enhance understanding and awareness of themes in physical geography, including their origins, development, and current status, through invited review articles.

《Geografiska Annaler, Series A: Physical Geography》是一本专注于自然地理学领域的期刊，发表原创研究，特别强调寒冷地区、高纬度和高海拔的过程、地貌及环境变化，包括过去、现在和未来的相关研究。该杂志主要通过发表基于研究的文章来促进常规研究的传播。此外，期刊还会发布主题专辑，收集围绕特定主题的文章，这些主题由编辑根据需求确定。最后，期刊希望通过受邀的评论文章，增进对自然地理学主题及其起源、发展和现状的理解和认识。

Category	Quartile
地球科学	4
地球科学, 自然地理	4
地球科学, 地质学	4

Climate indices as predictors of global soil organic carbon stocks

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