Abstract Large‐scale geological storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is indispensable for mitigating climate change but faces significant challenges, especially in the accurate quantitative assessment of leakage risks to ensure long‐term security. Given these circumstances, this paper proposes an innovative approach for quantitatively assessing CO 2 leakage risk to address the previous limitations of limited accuracy and insufficient data. We construct a fault tree and transform it into a Bayesian network–directed acyclic graph, and then use judgment sets along with fuzzy set theory to obtain prior probabilities of root nodes. The feature, event, and process method was utilized to identify key components and subsequently determine the conditional probability table (CPT) of the leaf node. The subjective experience assessments from experts are defuzzified to obtain the CPTs of intermediate nodes. The obtained basic probability parameters are input into the directed acyclic graph to complete the model construction. After calculating the leakage probability using this model, it is combined with the severity of impacts to conduct a comprehensive risk assessment. Furthermore, critical CO 2 risk sources can be determined through posterior probability calculations when intermediate nodes are designated as deterministic risk events. The gradual implementation process of the proposed model is demonstrated via a typical case study. The results indicate an overall CO 2 leakage probability of 29%, with probabilities of leakage along faults/fractures, caprock, and well identified as 32%, 28%, and 19%, respectively. The project is categorized as a medium‐low risk level. When leakage is confirmed, tectonic movement, thickness, and delamination at interface connections/the presence of cracks are the critical risk sources, and measures to mitigate key risks are outlined. The identified key risk factors conform to empirical evidence and previous research, validating the accuracy of the model. This study is instrumental in CO 2 geological storage risk assessment and scalable development program design. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.

Meng Jing

Qi Li

Guizhen Liu

Quan Xue

Greenhouse Gases Science and Technology

温室气体：科学与技术是一本新的在线科学期刊，致力于温室气体的管理。该杂志将重点关注碳捕获和储存 (CCS) 方法，以及利用二氧化碳 (CO2) 作为燃料和化学品的原料。 GHG 还将提供有关减少其他温室气体排放的战略的见解。将在评论性评论、评论文章和广泛感兴趣的简短交流中探索重大进展。此外，该期刊将提供对相关经济和政治问题、行业发展和案例研究的分析。温室气体：科学与技术是一本令人兴奋的新型在线期刊，作为 SCI（化学工业学会）的合作企业出版) 和约翰威利父子公司

Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology is a new online scientific journal dedicated to the management of greenhouse gases. The journal focuses on carbon capture and storage (CCS) methods, as well as the utilization of carbon dioxide (CO2) as a feedstock for fuels and chemicals. Additionally, it provides insights into strategies for reducing emissions of other greenhouse gases. The content includes review articles, commentaries, and brief communications on significant advancements. The journal also analyzes relevant economic and political issues, industry developments, and case studies. Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology is an exciting new online journal published in collaboration with the Society of Chemical Industry (SCI) and John Wiley & Sons.

《温室气体：科学与技术》是一本新的在线科学期刊，专注于温室气体的管理。该期刊将重点关注碳捕获与储存（CCS）技术，以及将二氧化碳（CO2）作为燃料和化学品原料的应用。此外，期刊还将提供关于减少其他温室气体排放的战略见解。期刊内容包括评论性文章、综述以及广泛关注的短篇交流，探讨重大进展。同时，期刊将分析相关的经济与政治问题、行业发展及案例研究。《温室气体：科学与技术》是一本令人兴奋的新型在线期刊，由化学工业学会（SCI）与约翰·威利父子公司共同出版。

Category	Quartile
环境科学与生态学	4
环境科学与生态学, 能源与燃料	4
环境科学与生态学, 工程环境	4
环境科学与生态学, 环境科学	4

Quantitative assessment of CO₂ leakage risk in geologic carbon storage management

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Journal Info

Category	Quartile
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES	3

Quantitative assessment of CO2 leakage risk in geologic carbon storage management

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Quantitative assessment of CO₂ leakage risk in geologic carbon storage management