Estimating the mortality associated with a specific mortality crisis event (for example, a pandemic, natural disaster, or conflict) is clearly an important public health undertaking. In many situations, deaths may be directly or indirectly attributable to the mortality crisis event, and both contributions may be of interest. The totality of the mortality impact on the population (direct and indirect deaths) includes the knock-on effects of the event, such as a breakdown of the health care system, or increased mortality due to shortages of resources. Unfortunately, estimating the deaths directly attributable to the event is frequently problematic. Hence, the excess mortality, defined as the difference between the observed mortality and that which would have occurred in the absence of the crisis event, is an estimation target. If the region of interest contains a functioning vital registration system, so that the mortality is fully observed and reliable, then the only modeling required is to produce the expected deaths counts, but this is a nontrivial exercise. In low- and middle-income countries it is common for there to be incomplete (or nonexistent) mortality data, and one must then use additional data and/or modeling, including predicting mortality using auxiliary variables. We describe and review each of these aspects, give examples of excess mortality studies, and provide a case study on excess mortality across states of the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Jon Wakefield

Victoria Knutson

Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application

统计及其应用年度回顾向统计学家和统计用户介绍主要方法学进展和允许实施的计算工具。

The Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application is an annual review journal that aims to introduce major methodological advancements in the field of statistics and the computational tools that facilitate their implementation to statisticians and statistical users.

《Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application》是一本年度回顾期刊，旨在向统计学家和统计用户介绍统计学领域的主要方法学进展及其应用的计算工具。

Category	Quartile
数学	1
数学, 数学跨学科应用	1
数学, 统计学与概率论	1

Excess Mortality Estimation

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Journal Info

Category	Quartile
STATISTICS & PROBABILITY	1