One of the most important tasks in sports analytics is the development of binary response models for head-to-head game outcomes to estimate team and player strength. We discuss commonly used probability models for game outcomes, including the Bradley–Terry and Thurstone–Mosteller models, as well as extensions to ties as a third outcome and to the inclusion of a home-field advantage. We consider dynamic extensions to these models to account for the evolution of competitor strengths over time. Full likelihood-based analyses of these time-varying models can be simplified into rating systems, such as the Elo and Glicko rating systems. We present other modern rating systems, including popular methods for online gaming, and novel systems that have been implemented for online chess and Go. The discussion of the analytic methods are accompanied by examples of where these approaches have been implemented for various gaming organizations, as well as a detailed application to National Basketball Association game outcomes.

Mark E. Glickman

Albyn C. Jones

Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application

统计及其应用年度回顾向统计学家和统计用户介绍主要方法学进展和允许实施的计算工具。

The Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application is an annual review journal that aims to introduce major methodological advancements in the field of statistics and the computational tools that facilitate their implementation to statisticians and statistical users.

《Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application》是一本年度回顾期刊，旨在向统计学家和统计用户介绍统计学领域的主要方法学进展及其应用的计算工具。

Category	Quartile
数学	1
数学, 数学跨学科应用	1
数学, 统计学与概率论	1

Models and Rating Systems for Head-to-Head Competition

ivySCI AI Smartly Parses PDF, Answers Researchers' Questions, and Helps You Understand Papers in Seconds

Journal Info

Category	Quartile
STATISTICS & PROBABILITY	1