Abstract Background Several countries in Southeast Asia are nearing malaria elimination, yet eradication remains elusive. This is largely due to the challenge of focusing elimination efforts, an area where risk prediction can play an essential supporting role. Despite its importance, there is no standard numerical method to quantify the risk of malaria infection. Thus, there is a need for a consolidated view of existing definitions of risk and factors considered in assessing risk to analyse the merits of risk prediction models. This systematic review examines studies of the risk of malaria in Southeast Asia with regard to their suitability in addressing the challenges of malaria elimination in low transmission areas. Methods A search of four electronic databases over 2010–2020 retrieved 1297 articles, of which 25 met the inclusion and exclusion criteria. In each study, examined factors included the definition of the risk and indicators of malaria transmission used, the environmental and climatic factors associated with the risk, the statistical models used, the spatial and temporal granularity, and how the relationship between environment, climate, and risk is quantified. Results This review found variation in the definition of risk used, as well as the environmental and climatic factors in the reviewed articles. GLM was widely adopted as the analysis technique relating environmental and climatic factors to malaria risk. Most of the studies were carried out in either a cross-sectional design or case–control studies, and most utilized the odds ratio to report the relationship between exposure to risk and malaria prevalence. Conclusions Adopting a standardized definition of malaria risk would help in comparing and sharing results, as would a clear description of the definition and method of collection of the environmental and climatic variables used. Further issues that need to be more fully addressed include detection of asymptomatic cases and considerations of human mobility. Many of the findings of this study are applicable to other low-transmission settings and could serve as a guideline for further studies of malaria in other regions.

Chaitawat Sa-Ngamuang

Saranath Lawpoolsri

Myat Su Yin

Thomas Barkowsky

Liwang Cui

Jetsumon Prachumsri

Peter Haddawy

Malaria Journal

《疟疾杂志》面向对广义上的疟疾感兴趣的科学界。它是唯一发表专门关于疟疾的文章的期刊，因此，它旨在汇集来自这一非常广泛学科的不同专业的知识，从长凳到床边再到现场。

Malaria Journal is a scientific journal dedicated to malaria research, aimed at providing a platform for researchers interested in malaria. As the only journal that exclusively publishes articles on malaria, it brings together diverse expertise from this broad field, covering aspects from bench research to bedside applications and field practices.

《Malaria Journal》是一本专注于疟疾研究的科学期刊，旨在为对疟疾感兴趣的研究者提供一个交流平台。作为唯一专门发表关于疟疾的文章的期刊，它汇集了来自这一广泛领域的不同专业知识，涵盖从基础研究到临床应用，再到现场实践的各个方面。

Assessment of malaria risk in Southeast Asia: a systematic review

This systematic review examines studies of the risk of malaria in Southeast Asia with regard to their suitability in addressing the challenges of malaria elimination in low transmission areas and adopting a standardized definition of malaria risk would help in comparing and sharing results.

Category	Quartile
医学	3
医学, 热带医学	2
医学, 传染病学	3
医学, 寄生虫学	3

Assessment of malaria risk in Southeast Asia: a systematic review

ivySCI AI Smartly Parses PDF, Answers Researchers' Questions, and Helps You Understand Papers in Seconds

Journal Info

Category	Quartile
TROPICAL MEDICINE	2