For the first time in history, on March 17, 2020, the European Union closed all its external borders in an attempt to contain the spreading of the coronavirus 2019, COVID-19. Throughout two past months, governments around the world have implemented massive travel restrictions and border control to mitigate the outbreak of this global pandemic. However, the precise effects of travel restrictions on the outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 remain unknown. Here we combine a global network mobility model with a local epidemiology model to simulate and predict the outbreak dynamics and outbreak control of COVID-19 across Europe. We correlate our mobility model to passenger air travel statistics and calibrate our epidemiology model using the number of reported COVID-19 cases for each country. Our simulations show that mobility networks of air travel can predict the emerging global diffusion pattern of a pandemic at the early stages of the outbreak. Our results suggest that an unconstrained mobility would have significantly accelerated the spreading of COVID-19, especially in Central Europe, Spain, and France. Ultimately, our network epidemiology model can inform political decision making and help identify exit strategies from current travel restrictions and total lockdown.

Kevin Linka

Mathias Peirlinck

Francisco Sahli Costabal

Ellen Kuhl

Computer Methods in Biomechanics & Biomedical Engineering

生物力学和生物医学工程中的计算机方法的主要目的是提供一种交流生物力学和生物医学工程领域正在取得的进展的方法，并激发人们对这些多学科学科中不断出现的基于计算机的技术的兴趣。生物力学和生物医学工程中的计算机方法也将重点关注将工程学科与医学技术和临床专业知识相结合的重要性。这种整合将对未来的医疗保健产生重大影响。

The primary aim of the journal "Computer Methods in Biomechanics and Biomedical Engineering" is to provide a platform for communicating the latest advancements in the fields of biomechanics and biomedical engineering, while also stimulating interest in the emerging computer-based technologies within these multidisciplinary areas. The journal will emphasize the importance of integrating engineering disciplines with medical technologies and clinical expertise, which will have a significant impact on the future of healthcare.

《Computer Methods in Biomechanics and Biomedical Engineering》期刊的主要目的是提供一个交流生物力学和生物医学工程领域最新进展的平台，并激发对这些多学科领域中不断涌现的计算机技术的兴趣。该期刊还将重点关注工程学科与医学技术及临床专业知识结合的重要性，这种整合将对未来的医疗保健产生深远的影响。

Category	Quartile
医学	4
医学, 计算机跨学科应用	4
医学, 工程生物医学	4

Outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 in Europe and the effect of travel restrictions

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Journal Info

Category	Quartile
ENGINEERING, BIOMEDICAL	3