This work constructs, analyzes and simulates the SIR-IH model, a modified SIR epidemiological model for the spread of a disease, in which the infection rate and hospitalization ratio are system variables. The motivation, in part, of making the infection rate a state variable comes from the observations that the infectivity of a disease, such as COVID-19, has been changing with the evolution of the disease, and not necessarily by the appearance of new variants. Moreover, it may change in time if more than one variant are present. The addition of a hospitalization rate is done to make the model more applied for those who need to make decisions on the preparedness of the health system, in particular the hospitals, in case of a pandemic. The model consists of a coupled system of differential equations, and its analysis shows the existence, positivity and boundedness of the solutions. Then, computer simulations depict some typical or interesting dynamic behaviors, and the way the system approaches the steady states.

Janice Moore

A modified SIR model with dependent infection and hospitalization rates

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