West Nile virus (WNv) is a mosquito-borne disease caused by Flavivirus. To investigate the combined effects of vertical transmission, temperature-dependent incubation periods and seasonality on the transmission of WNv, we develop a delay differential system with stage-structure and time-varying delays. We then derive the mosquito reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_0^V$ and basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_0$ and show that these two numbers serve as threshold parameters that determine whether WNv will spread. As an application, we conduct a case study for WNv transmission in Los Angeles County, California. We also carry out numerical simulations to identify the situations that require time-periodic delays. Moreover, we find that rising temperatures may potentially increase the risk of disease outbreaks.

Feng-Bin Wang

Ruiwen Wu

Xiao-Qiang Zhao

SIAM Journal on Applied Dynamical Systems

SIAM JOURNAL ON APPLIED DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS (SIADS) 发表关于动力系统的数学分析和建模及其在物理、工程、生命和社会科学中的应用的研究文章。 SIADS 仅以电子格式发布。

The SIAM Journal on Applied Dynamical Systems (SIADS) publishes research articles on the mathematical analysis and modeling of dynamical systems and their applications in physics, engineering, life sciences, and social sciences. SIADS is published exclusively in electronic format.

SIAM Journal on Applied Dynamical Systems (SIADS) 发表关于动力系统的数学分析、建模及其在物理、工程、生命科学和社会科学中的应用研究文章。SIADS 仅以电子格式发布。

A West Nile Virus Transmission Model with Periodic Incubation Periods

West Nile virus (WNv) is a mosquito-borne disease caused by Flavivirus and to investigate the combined effects of vertical transmission, temperature-dependent incubation periods and seasonality on the spread of the disease, a large number of mosquitoes are vaccinated against it.

Category	Quartile
数学	4
数学, 物理数学物理	3
数学, 应用数学	4

A West Nile Virus Transmission Model with Periodic Incubation Periods

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Category	Quartile
PHYSICS, MATHEMATICAL	2