To solve the problem that existing grey prediction models are prone to be affected by outliers and show poor stability, a novel grey prediction model based on quantile regression technology is proposed (abbreviated as the QGM(1,1) model). The improved simplex algorithm is utilized to solve the programming problem in the model so that the structural parameters are estimated at different quantiles. Compared with the parameters estimation of traditional grey prediction models, the QGM(1,1) model describes the influence of the independent variable on the range of the dependent variable and the shape of the conditional distribution accurately, and captures the tail characteristics of the distribution. Moreover, the results of interval prediction are given according to the estimated values of parameters at different quantiles by setting a corresponding error criterion. The effectiveness of the novel model is verified by three analytical examples. The results show that the QGM(1,1) model not only can conclude the predicted value of the distribution center but also can predict the dynamic trends of upper and lower limits of the distribution. The prediction accuracy is significantly improved and the robustness is greatly enhanced.

Zheng-Xin Wang

Yue-Qi Jv

Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation

该杂志发表关于实验观察、数学建模、理论分析和数值模拟的原创研究成果，以更准确地描述、更好地预测或新颖应用科学和工程中的非线性现象。它为研究人员提供了一个快速交流非线性科学和复杂性的思想和技术的场所。特别鼓励提交具有非线性科学和复杂性的跨学科方法的手稿。感兴趣的主题：非线性微分或延迟方程，李群分析和渐近方法, 不连续系统, 分形, 分数阶微积分和动力学, 量子力学中的非线性效应, 非线性随机过程, 实验非线性科学, 时间序列和信号分析, 非线性科学和工程中的计算方法和模拟, 动力系统控制, 同步, LYAPUNOV 分析, 高维混沌和湍流, 哈密顿系统中的混沌, 可积系统和孤子, 多体系统中的集体行为, 生物物理和网络, 非线性机械系统, 复杂系统和复杂性。贡献没有长度限制已设置，但只是简明扼要书面手稿出版。在快速通讯的基础上发表简短的论文。欢迎讨论以前发表的论文。

The journal "Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation" publishes original research results related to experimental observations, mathematical modeling, theoretical analysis, and numerical simulations, aiming to more accurately describe, predict, or novelly apply nonlinear phenomena in science and engineering. It provides a platform for researchers to quickly exchange ideas and techniques in nonlinear science and complexity, particularly encouraging submissions that employ interdisciplinary approaches. Topics of interest include nonlinear differential or delay equations, Lie group analysis and asymptotic methods, discontinuous systems, fractals, fractional calculus and dynamics, nonlinear effects in quantum mechanics, nonlinear stochastic processes, experimental nonlinear science, time series and signal analysis, computational methods and simulations in nonlinear science and engineering, control of dynamical systems, synchronization, Lyapunov analysis, high-dimensional chaos and turbulence, chaos in Hamiltonian systems, integrable systems and solitons, collective behavior in many-body systems, biophysics and networks, nonlinear mechanical systems, and complexity in complex systems. There is no length restriction for contributions, but they should be concise. The journal also welcomes the publication of brief papers on a fast communication basis and discussions on previously published papers.

《Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation》期刊发表关于实验观察、数学建模、理论分析和数值模拟的原创研究成果，旨在更准确地描述、预测或新颖应用科学和工程中的非线性现象。该期刊为研究人员提供了一个快速交流非线性科学和复杂性思想与技术的平台，特别鼓励提交具有跨学科方法的手稿，涉及非线性科学和复杂性。感兴趣的主题包括：非线性微分方程或延迟方程、李群分析和渐近方法、不连续系统、分形、分数阶微积分与动力学、量子力学中的非线性效应、非线性随机过程、实验非线性科学、时间序列与信号分析、非线性科学与工程中的计算方法与模拟、动力系统控制、同步、LYAPUNOV分析、高维混沌与湍流、哈密顿系统中的混沌、可积系统与孤子、多体系统中的集体行为、生物物理与网络、非线性机械系统、复杂系统与复杂性。稿件没有长度限制，但要求简明扼要。期刊也欢迎在快速通讯基础上发表简短论文，并欢迎对以前发表的论文进行讨论。

A novel grey prediction model based on quantile regression

The results show that the QGM(1,1) model not only can conclude the predicted value of the distribution center but also can predict the dynamic trends of upper and lower limits of theribution.

Category	Quartile
数学	2
数学, 应用数学	2
数学, 数学跨学科应用	2
数学, 力学	2
数学, 物理流体与等离子体	2
数学, 物理数学物理	2

A novel grey prediction model based on quantile regression

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Category	Quartile
PHYSICS, MATHEMATICAL	1