Abstract This study investigates the orbit determination of the Mars-crossing asteroids (MCAs) with a focus on the possibility of detecting their Yarkovsky signals. We analyze the influences of force model uncertainties on MCA orbits, including the uncertainty of the main asteroid belt, and the uncertainty of the major planets’ ephemeris. The main asteroid belt is modeled using 343 asteroids and a ring structure. The Yarkovsky effect’s quadratic nature allows it to dominate over extended observation periods. To address dynamical errors and potential interactions with the main asteroid belt, we employ not only a traditional seven-dimensional differential corrector but also a nine-dimensional differential corrector that considers radial, vertical, and transversal forces. Comparison shows that the latter approach enhances the fit to observational data. However, the reliability of the Yarkovsky parameter is not enhanced because the estimation of the radial component is physically unacceptable. Despite incorporating precise Gaia data, our analysis does not conclusively detect a Yarkovsky effect on MCAs due to uncertainties in the force model. Nevertheless, our research advances our understanding of MCA dynamics, identifying five potential candidates whose Yarkovsky effect may be observable.

Xin Liu

Xi-Yun Hou

Jun Yao

Shanhong Liu

Roberto Armellin

Qingbo Gan

Zhitao Yang

The Astronomical Journal

《天文学杂志》发表原创的天文学研究，重点是从观测中得出的重要科学成果。 AJ 中的出版物包括对数据采集、调查、分析技术、天文解释、仪器仪表以及软件和计算的描述。

The Astronomical Journal publishes original research in astronomy, focusing on significant scientific findings derived from observations. Publications in AJ include descriptions of data collection, surveys, analytical techniques, astronomical interpretations, instrumentation, as well as software and computational methods.

《Astronomical Journal》发表原创的天文学研究，重点关注从观测中得出的重要科学成果。该期刊的出版物涵盖数据采集、调查、分析技术、天文解释、仪器仪表以及软件和计算的描述。

Category	Quartile
物理与天体物理	2
物理与天体物理, 天文与天体物理	2

Precise Orbit Determination of Mars-crossing Asteroids

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Journal Info

Category	Quartile
ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS	1