Advances in Macroeconomics

Philippe Weil

Olivier Blanchard

Debt Ponzi games and dynamic efficiency under uncertainty

不确定条件下的债务庞氏骗局与动态效率

债务庞氏游戏与不确定性下的动态效率

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Volker Wieland

Monetary Policy and Uncertainty about the Natural Unemployment Rate: Brainard-Style Conservatism versus Experimental Activism

货币政策与自然失业率的不确定性：布雷纳德式保守主义与实验性激进主义

Orazio P. Attanasio

Sagiri Kitao

Giovanni L. Violante

Quantifying the Effects of the Demographic Transition in Developing Economies

量化发展中经济体人口转变的影响

Inflation, as a tax on money, induces buyers to reduce their money balances. Sellers are aware of this, so to attract costumers, they post price offers that reduce the need for buyers to carry precautionary money balances. We study this effect of inflation in a competitive search environment where buyers experience preference shocks after they are matched with a seller. With full information, equilibrium price offers consist of a flat fee which is independent of the quantities purchased. With private information of buyers' preferences, equilibrium price offers are restricted by incentive compatibility constraints. As a result, the price schedule that maps quantities purchased onto payments must be increasing. As inflation rises, these price schedules become relatively flat, so the marginal cost of purchasing goods is low. Consequently, buyers that are not liquidity constrained (with a low desire to consume) purchase inefficiently large quantities. Meanwhile, buyers with a high desire to consume typically purchase inefficiently low quantities because, as their money balances fall, they become liquidity constrained. This is in contrast with the full information benchmark where inflation reduces the quantities purchased by all buyers.

Miquel Faig

Belén Jerez

Inflation, Prices, and Information in Competitive Search

竞争性搜索中的通货膨胀、价格与信息

Empirical research has shown that there is large uncertainty concerning the value of the natural rate of unemployment at any point in time. I incorporate this feature in a model of monetary policy where the policymaker targets an inflation rate and the natural rate of unemployment and solve for the optimal policy. Two interesting results emerge. First, under a realistic shock profile, the model generates long-lasting deviations of inflation from target, providing an alternative (but also a complement) to the popular Barro-Gordon framework. Second, the economy exhibits large inflation persistence and can have very rich inflation dynamics. The model is able to account for approximately one third of the increase in inflation in the United States in the late 1970s, and suggests an explanation for the low inflation of the late 1990s. Moreover, I present empirical evidence for the United States and other countries that support the model including a new empirical finding: across countries there is a positive statistical relation between the persistence of unemployment and the persistence of inflation.

Ricardo Reis

Where Is the Natural Rate? Rational Policy Mistakes and Persistent Deviations of Inflation from Target

自然利率在哪里？理性政策失误与通胀持续偏离目标

We examine the extent of downward nominal wage rigidity using the microdata underlying the BLS's employment cost index. This dataset has two significant advantages over those used previously. It is an extensive, nationally representative dataset based on establishment records and is thus free from much of the reporting error that has plagued earlier work. Even more important, the data are unique in containing detailed information on benefit costs, allowing a first look at the rigidity of total compensation (that is, wages plus benefits). In general, we find significantly stronger evidence of downward nominal wage rigidity than did studies using panel data on individuals. Although total compensation appears somewhat more flexible than wages and salaries alone, we still find a significant amount of rigidity for compensation. Furthermore, the greater flexibility of compensation does not seem to reflect the deliberate attempt by firms to use benefits to circumvent wage and salary rigidity.

Publication Information	Publisher: Walter de Gruyter GmbH，Publishing cycle: ，Journal Type: journal，Open Access Journals: No
Basic data	Year of publication: 2003，Proportion of original research papers: ，Self Citation Rate:， Gold OA Rate:

Advances in Macroeconomics

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Debt Ponzi games and dynamic efficiency under uncertainty

Debt Ponzi games and dynamic efficiency under uncertainty

Debt Ponzi games and dynamic efficiency under uncertainty

Debt Ponzi games and dynamic efficiency under uncertainty

Debt Ponzi games and dynamic efficiency under uncertainty

Monetary Policy and Uncertainty about the Natural Unemployment Rate: Brainard-Style Conservatism versus Experimental Activism

Quantifying the Effects of the Demographic Transition in Developing Economies

Inflation, Prices, and Information in Competitive Search

Where Is the Natural Rate? Rational Policy Mistakes and Persistent Deviations of Inflation from Target

Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity: Evidence from the Employment Cost Index