Decision Analysis

We retrospectively explore the effectiveness of various probabilistic opinion pools against a set of insider threat detection modeling data from a recently completed, multiyear, sponsored research effort. We explored four opinion pools: the linear opinion pool (likely the most popular), the beta-transformed linear opinion pool, the geometric opinion pool, and a multiplicative method based on odds called Bordley’s formula. The data for our study came from our recent work in the inference of insider threats for our research sponsor. In this work, we created a multimodeling inference enterprise modeling (MIEM) process to either predict threats within a population or, given the threats, predict how well the enterprise system can detect those threats. As part of larger research challenges designed by the research sponsor, we applied the MIEM process quarterly to respond to a sequence of varying challenge problems (CPs). Via MIEM, we developed multiple, independent computation forecast models. These models generated certainty intervals to answer CP questions. These intervals were fused into a single interval for each question via an expert panel prior to submission. The sponsors scored the responses against ground truth. In this paper, we (a) ask which pooling functions work best on these data and consider why, and (b) compare this performance to the actual submissions to determine if one of the pooling functions performed better than our judgment-based fusion.

Jared A. Beekman

Ronald F. A. Woodaman

Dennis M. Buede

A Review of Probabilistic Opinion Pooling Algorithms with Application to Insider Threat Detection

概率意见池算法综述及其在内幕威胁检测中的应用

The ecological restoration of abandoned mines poses a significant challenge within China’s broader efforts toward the protection and restoration of the nation’s ecosystems. Based on the ecology-oriented development (EOD) model, a differential game framework for the ecological restoration of abandoned mines was constructed in this study, involving both government and corporate entities as players. Our analysis focused on various factors, including investment levels in ecological restoration quality, the quality of ecological restoration itself, investment levels in environmentally sensitive industry development, the quality of environmentally sensitive industries, environmentally sensitive product pricing strategies, and profit dynamics for both players across four distinct modes. Our findings reveal several key insights. First, extending the government’s concession period incentivizes enterprises to increase investment in both the quality of ecological restoration of abandoned mines and the development of environmentally sensitive industries. Second, the government should prefer the cooperative mode to introduce social capital for the ecology-oriented development of abandoned mines. Third, in noncooperative mode, for technology-intensive industries, the government’s industrial support policy is more mutually beneficial; conversely, for labor-intensive industries, the ecological restoration compensation policy yields higher mutual gains. Lastly, differentiated incentive policies implemented by the government across various modes prompt the input of enterprises in ecological restoration quality and environmentally sensitive industry development. Based on these findings, we offer specific policy recommendations to guide governmental efforts in promoting EOD for the ecological restoration of abandoned mines. Funding: This work was supported by the Sichuan Office of Philosophy and Social Science [Grant SC22C004] and the National Social Science Fund of China [Grant 22XKS015].

Ning Wang

Deqing Tan

Research on Ecological Restoration Strategies for Abandoned Mines Based on Ecology-Oriented Development

基于生态导向发展的废弃矿山生态修复策略研究

Frugal materialism is a tendency of consumer demand to become more elastic in product durability in response to a tightening budget constraint. This paper proposes a value function-based model of frugal materialism and establishes a close theoretical link between frugal materialism and the slope of value satiation as defined in the decision analytic literature; for both their absolute and relative versions, frugal materialism and increasing value satiation are nearly equivalent to each other. Only some shapes of the value function are thus compatible with frugal materialism, and the shape restrictions involve concepts familiar from models of decision making under risk, even though the proposed model of frugal materialism does not involve any risk. Under the additional assumption of relative risk neutrality, the demand for risky assets of a frugally materialistic consumer should exhibit well-known behavioral patterns associated with increasing risk aversion, and there is only a narrow possibility for frugal materialism to coexist with precautionary saving behavior.

Robert Zeithammer

Satiation-Based Theory of Frugal Materialism

基于满足感的节俭物质主义理论

Long-term decisions, such as decisions about carbon abatement, are usually based on the implausible assumption of constant social preference. This paper focuses on a specific case of market and nonmarket goods, and it investigates the optimal climate policy when social preference for them is also changed by climate policy in a seminal climate-economy model: the Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy (DICE) model with a single objective to maximize market goods consumption. We amend DICE to study an optimization problem that trades off the values of market and nonmarket goods, considering endogenous preferences. The relative price of non-market goods grows over time because of increases in both relative scarcity and the appreciation that represents the preference of it. As nonmarket goods are increasingly valuable relative to market ones, climate damages on nonmarket goods are increasingly expensive. The social cost of carbon, which aggregated climate impact on both goods, is consequently higher. Because abatement decision affects the valuation of nonmarket goods in the utility function, unlike previous climate-economy models, we solve the model iteratively by taking the obtained abatement rates from the last run as inputs in the current run. The results in baseline calibration advocate a more stringent climate policy, where endogenous social preference to climate policy raises the social cost of carbon further by roughly 12%–18% this century. Moreover, neglecting changing social preference leads to an underestimate of nonmarket goods damages by 15%. Climate policy is self-reinforced if it favors the more expensive consumption good. The proposed method can be applied to other long-term problems with endogenous preferences. Funding: H. Liao appreciates the funding from the National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grants 71925008, 72293603, and 72488101].

Fangzhi Wang

Hua Liao

Richard S. J. Tol

Changjing Ji

Endogenous Preference for Nonmarket Goods in Carbon Abatement Decisions

碳减排决策中的非市场商品内生偏好

Cyberattacks constitute a major threat to most organizations. Beyond financial consequences, they may entail multiple impacts that need to be taken into account when making risk management decisions to allocate the required cybersecurity resources. Experts have traditionally focused on a technical perspective of the problem by considering impacts in relation with the confidentiality, integrity, and availability of information. We adopt a more comprehensive approach identifying a broader set of generic cybersecurity objectives, the corresponding set of attributes, and relevant forecasting and assessment models. These are used as basic ingredients for decision support in cybersecurity risk management.

Aitor Couce-Vieira

David Rios Insua

Alex Kosgodagan

Assessing and Forecasting Cybersecurity Impacts

评估和预测网络安全影响

Sophisticated cyberattackers (commonly known as advanced persistent threats (APTs)) pose enormous risks to organizations such as financial institutions, industrial and commercial firms, government institutions, and power grids. This study presents a method and an index to measure the vulnerability of organizations to APT risk and shows why a one-size-fits-all solution to mitigate APT risk does not exist. Our vulnerability index is based on a model that describes the optimal behavior of a cyberattacker (APT) with research and development capabilities aspiring to attack a network that manages the organization and a network operator that deploys blocking and detection measures to protect its organization from the attack. We demonstrate how our vulnerability index, which accounts for the network’s structure and the APTs’ resources and strategy, can be used in realistic risk assessments and optimal resource allocation procedures and serve as a benchmark for organizations’ preparedness against APTs’ cyberattacks. We also propose that regulatory agencies of financial (and other) institutions provide the parameters that define an APT’s profile and request, as part of their periodic assessments of the organizations that they regulate, that our (or similar) vulnerability index will be reported to them by the regulated institutions. Finally, the viability of our index in modeling modern cybersecurity defense procedures shows that not only there is no silver bullet defense against all types of APTs, it is also imperative to account for APTs’ heterogeneity because detection and blocking measures can be complements, substitutes, or even degrade each other. For example, when the attacker’s (defender’s) budget is extremely large (small), the defender should deploy only detection measures, strongly advocating Zero Trust practices. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2023.0072 .

Amitai Gilad

Asher Tishler

Measuring and Mitigating the Risk of Advanced Cyberattackers

测量和缓解高级网络攻击者的风险

The value of information is an important concept in decision analysis that has been quantified as the buying price (BPI) for the information and the expected utility increase (EUI) obtainable by using the information. These two measures rank information sources identically in a scalar-valued decision problem only when the utility function is linear or exponential. In contrast, this paper focuses on the value of information across scalar-valued decision problems sharing the same utility function such as different divisions within an organization exploring various information sources for their decisions using the same organizational utility function. In this context, it still makes sense to ask which sources are more informative. We show that BPI and EUI rank information sources identically in this context only when the utility function is linear. However, if the certainty equivalent increase is used instead of EUI, then identical ranking with BPI across problems is maintained for the broader class of linear or exponential utility functions. We discuss the importance of these results for distributed decision-making settings, where different departments within an organization may calculate the value of information separately. Our results advise against using EUI to measure information value in this context when risk attitude is important.

Ali Abbas

Gordon Hazen

On the Value of Information Across Decision Problems

跨决策问题的信息价值研究

短名	Decis. Anal.
Journal Impact	2.36
国际分区	MANAGEMENT(Q3)
期刊索引	SCI Q4中科院 4 区

ISSN	1545-8490, 1545-8504
h-index	30
国内分区	管理学(4区)管理学管理学(4区)

涉及主题	数学计算机科学经济数理经济学工程类统计微观经济学哲学人工智能管理科学业务机器学习运筹学法学政治学生物认识论物理医学
出版信息	出版商: INFORMS Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences，出版周期: ，期刊类型: journal，开源期刊: 否
基本数据	创刊年份: 2010，原创研究文献占比: 94.44%，自引率:8.00%， Gold OA占比: 0.00%

Decision Analysis

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A Review of Probabilistic Opinion Pooling Algorithms with Application to Insider Threat Detection

Research on Ecological Restoration Strategies for Abandoned Mines Based on Ecology-Oriented Development

Satiation-Based Theory of Frugal Materialism

Endogenous Preference for Nonmarket Goods in Carbon Abatement Decisions

Assessing and Forecasting Cybersecurity Impacts

Satiation-Based Theory of Frugal Materialism

Research on Ecological Restoration Strategies for Abandoned Mines Based on Ecology-Oriented Development

Endogenous Preference for Nonmarket Goods in Carbon Abatement Decisions

Measuring and Mitigating the Risk of Advanced Cyberattackers

On the Value of Information Across Decision Problems