贝叶斯分析是国际贝叶斯分析学会的电子期刊。它旨在发表广泛的文章，在某些理论或应用背景下展示或讨论贝叶斯方法。该期刊欢迎提交新的计算和统计方法的投稿；对现有方法的批判性审查和讨论；历史观点；重要科学或政策应用领域的描述；实例探究;以及实验设计、数据收集、数据共享或数据挖掘的方法。提交的评估基于内容的重要性和沟通的有效性。讨论论文通常由主编选择，或由编辑建议，在定期提交的论文中。此外，《期刊》鼓励个人作者提交手稿以作为讨论文件考虑。

Bayesian Analysis is the electronic journal of the International Society for Bayesian Analysis. It aims to publish a wide range of articles that showcase or discuss Bayesian methods in various theoretical or applied contexts. The journal welcomes submissions of new computational and statistical methods; critical reviews and discussions of existing methods; historical perspectives; descriptions of significant scientific or policy application areas; case studies; as well as methods for experimental design, data collection, data sharing, or data mining. Submitted papers are evaluated based on the importance of their content and the effectiveness of their communication. Discussion papers are typically selected by the editor-in-chief or recommended by editors as part of regularly submitted papers. Additionally, Bayesian Analysis encourages individual authors to submit manuscripts for consideration as discussion papers.

《Bayesian Analysis》是国际贝叶斯分析学会的电子期刊，旨在发表广泛的文章，展示或讨论贝叶斯方法在各种理论或应用背景下的应用。该期刊欢迎提交新的计算和统计方法的研究；对现有方法的批判性审查和讨论；历史视角；重要科学或政策应用领域的描述；实例研究；以及实验设计、数据收集、数据共享或数据挖掘的方法。提交的论文将根据内容的重要性和沟通的有效性进行评估。讨论论文通常由主编选择，或由编辑建议，作为定期提交的论文的一部分。此外，《Bayesian Analysis》鼓励个人作者提交手稿，以供作为讨论文件考虑。

Bayesian Analysis

Decoding complex relationships among large numbers of variables with relatively few observations is one of the crucial issues in science. One approach to this problem is Gaussian graphical modeling, which describes conditional independence of variables through the presence or absence of edges in the underlying graph. In this paper, we introduce a novel and efficient Bayesian framework for Gaussian graphical model determination which is a trans-dimensional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach based on a continuous-time birth-death process. We cover the theory and computational details of the method. It is easy to implement and computationally feasible for high-dimensional graphs. We show our method outperforms alternative Bayesian approaches in terms of convergence, mixing in the graph space and computing time. Unlike frequentist approaches, it gives a principled and, in practice, sensible approach for structure learning. We illustrate the efficiency of the method on a broad range of simulated data. We then apply the method on large-scale real applications from human and mammary gland gene expression studies to show its empirical usefulness. In addition, we implemented the method in the R package BDgraph which is freely available at http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=BDgraph.

A. Mohammadi

E. C. Wit

Bayesian Anal.

Bayesian Structure Learning in Sparse Gaussian Graphical Models

Penalized regression methods for simultaneous variable selection and coefficient estimation, especially those based on the lasso of Tibshirani (1996), have received a great deal of attention in recent years, mostly through frequentist models. Properties such as consistency have been studied, and are achieved by different lasso variations. Here we look at a fully Bayesian formulation of the problem, which is flexible enough to encompass most versions of the lasso that have been previously considered. The advantages of the hierarchical Bayesian formulations are many. In addition to the usual ease-of-interpretation of hierarchical models, the Bayesian formulation produces valid standard errors (which can be problematic for the frequentist lasso), and is based on a geometrically ergodic Markov chain. We compare the performance of the Bayesian lassos to their frequentist counterparts using simulations, data sets that previous lasso papers have used, and a difficult modeling problem for predicting the collapse of governments around the world. In terms of prediction mean squared error, the Bayesian lasso performance is similar to and, in some cases, better than, the frequentist lasso.

George Casella

Malay Ghosh

Jeff Gill

Minjung Kyung

Penalized regression, standard errors, and Bayesian lassos

惩罚回归、标准误差与贝叶斯Lasso

This paper presents a latent variable representation of regularized support vector machines (SVM's) that enables EM, ECME or MCMC algorithms to provide parameter estimates. We verify our representation by demonstrating that minimizing the SVM optimality criterion together with the parameter regularization penalty is equivalent to finding the mode of a mean-variance mixture of normals pseudo-posterior distribution. The latent variables in the mixture representation lead to EM and ECME point estimates of SVM parameters, as well as MCMC algorithms based on Gibbs sampling that can bring Bayesian tools for Gaussian linear models to bear on SVM's. We show how to implement SVM's with spike-and-slab priors and run them against data from a standard spam filtering data set.

Nicholas G. Polson

Steven L. Scott

Data augmentation for support vector machines

支持向量机的数据增强

The selection of variables in regression problems has occupied the minds of many statisticians. Several Bayesian variable selection methods have been developed, and we concentrate on the following methods: Kuo & Mallick, Gibbs Variable Selection (GVS), Stochastic Search Variable Selection (SSVS), adaptive shrinkage with Jeffreys' prior or a Laplacian prior, and reversible jump MCMC. We review these methods, in the context of their different properties. We then implement the methods in BUGS, using both real and simulated data as examples, and investigate how the different methods perform in practice. Our results suggest that SSVS, reversible jump MCMC and adaptive shrinkage methods can all work well, but the choice of which method is better will depend on the priors that are used, and also on how they are implemented.

R. B. O'Hara

M. J. Sillanpää

A review of Bayesian variable selection methods: what, how and which

贝叶斯变量选择方法综述：是什么、如何做以及选择哪种

The paper revisits the Bayesian group lasso and uses spike and slab priors for group variable selection. In the process, the connection of our model with penalized regression is demonstrated, and the role of posterior median for thresholding is pointed out. We show that the posterior median estimator has the oracle property for group variable selection and estimation under orthogonal designs, while the group lasso has suboptimal asymptotic estimation rate when variable selection consistency is achieved. Next we consider bi-level selection problem and propose the Bayesian sparse group selection again with spike and slab priors to select variables both at the group level and also within a group. We demonstrate via simulation that the posterior median estimator of our spike and slab models has excellent performance for both variable selection and estimation.

Xiaofan Xu

Bayesian Variable Selection and Estimation for Group Lasso

贝叶斯变量选择与分组Lasso估计

The efficiency of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) can suffer when sampling a distribution with a wide range of length scales, because the small step sizes needed for stability in high-curvature regions are inefficient elsewhere. To address this we present a delayed rejection (DR) variant: if an initial HMC trajectory is rejected, we make one or more subsequent proposals each using a step size geometrically smaller than the last. To reduce the cost of DR approaches, we extend the standard delayed rejection to a probabilistic framework wherein we do not make multiple proposals at every rejection, but allow the probability of a retry to depend on the probability of accepting the previous proposal. We test the scheme in several sampling tasks, including statistical applications and multiscale model distributions such as Neal's funnel. Delayed rejection enables sampling multiscale distributions for which standard approaches such as HMC fail to explore the tails, and improves performance five-fold over optimally-tuned HMC as measured by effective sample size per gradient evaluation. Even for simpler distributions, delayed rejection provides increased robustness to step size misspecification.

Chirag Modi

Alex Barnett

Bob Carpenter

Delayed rejection Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for sampling multiscale distributions

多尺度分布采样的延迟拒绝哈密顿蒙特卡罗方法

Geographically weighted regression (GWR) models handle geographical dependence through a spatially varying coefficient model and have been widely used in applied science, but its general Bayesian extension is unclear because it involves a weighted log-likelihood which does not imply a probability distribution on data. We present a Bayesian GWR model and show that its essence is dealing with partial misspecification of the model. Current modularized Bayesian inference models accommodate partial misspecification from a single component of the model. We extend these models to handle partial misspecification in more than one component of the model, as required for our Bayesian GWR model. Information from the various spatial locations is manipulated via a geographically weighted kernel and the optimal manipulation is chosen according to a Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence. We justify the model via an information risk minimization approach and show the consistency of the proposed estimator in terms of a geographically weighted KL divergence.

Yang Liu

Robert J. B. Goudie

Generalized Geographically Weighted Regression Model within a Modularized Bayesian Framework

模块化贝叶斯框架下的广义地理加权回归模型

When analysing multiple time series that may be subject to changepoints, it is sometimes possible to specify a priori, by means of a graph, which pairs of time series are likely to be impacted by simultaneous changepoints. This article proposes an informative prior for changepoints which encodes the information contained in the graph, inducing a changepoint model for multiple time series that borrows strength across clusters of connected time series to detect weak signals for synchronous changepoints. The graphical model for changepoints is further extended to allow dependence between nearby but not necessarily synchronous changepoints across neighbouring time series in the graph. A novel reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm making use of auxiliary variables is proposed to sample from the graphical changepoint model. The merit of the proposed approach is demonstrated through a changepoint analysis of computer network authentication logs from Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), demonstrating an improvement at detecting weak signals for network intrusions across users linked by network connectivity, whilst limiting the number of false alerts.

Karl L. Hallgren

Nicholas A. Heard

Melissa J. M. Turcotte

Changepoint Detection on a Graph of Time Series

时间序列图上的变点检测

Multiplex networks have become increasingly more prevalent in many fields, and have emerged as a powerful tool for modeling the complexity of real networks. There is a critical need for developing inference models for multiplex networks that can take into account potential dependencies across different layers, particularly when the aim is community detection. We add to a limited literature by proposing a novel and efficient Bayesian model for community detection in multiplex networks. A key feature of our approach is the ability to model varying communities at different network layers. In contrast, many existing models assume the same communities for all layers. Moreover, our model automatically picks up the necessary number of communities at each layer (as validated by real data examples). This is appealing, since deciding the number of communities is a challenging aspect of community detection, and especially so in the multiplex setting, if one allows the communities to change across layers. Borrowing ideas from hierarchical Bayesian modeling, we use a hierarchical Dirichlet prior to model community labels across layers, allowing dependency in their structure. Given the community labels, a stochastic block model (SBM) is assumed for each layer. We develop an efficient slice sampler for sampling the posterior distribution of the community labels as well as the link probabilities between communities. In doing so, we address some unique challenges posed by coupling the complex likelihood of SBM with the hierarchical nature of the prior on the labels. An extensive empirical validation is performed on simulated and real data, demonstrating the superior performance of the model over single-layer alternatives, as well as the ability to uncover interesting structures in real networks.

Abbreviation	Bayesian Anal.
Journal Impact	4.78
Quartiles(Global)	STATISTICS & PROBABILITY(Q1)

ISSN	1931-6690, 1936-0975
h-index	65

Publication Information	Publisher: Carnegie Mellon University，Publishing cycle: Irregular，Journal Type: journal，Open Access Journals: Yes
Basic data	Year of publication: 2006，Proportion of original research papers: 100.00%，Self Citation Rate:10.20%， Gold OA Rate: 99.26%
Average review cycle	网友分享经验：>12周，或约稿
Average recruitment ratio	网友分享经验：较易

Bayesian Analysis

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