American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics focuses on studies of aggregate fluctuations and growth, and the role of policy in that context. Such studies often borrow from and interact with research in other fields, such as monetary theory, industrial organization, finance, labor economics, political economy, public finance, international economics, and development economics. To the extent that they make a contribution to macroeconomics, papers in these fields are also welcome.

The American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics focuses on the study of aggregate fluctuations and growth, as well as the role of policy within that context. Such studies often draw from and interact with research in other fields, including monetary theory, industrial organization, finance, labor economics, political economy, public finance, international economics, and development economics. Papers from these fields are also welcome, provided they contribute to the field of macroeconomics.

《American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics》专注于研究总体波动与增长以及政策在其中的作用。这类研究通常借鉴并与其他领域的研究相互交融，如货币理论、产业组织、金融、劳动经济学、政治经济学、公共财政、国际经济学和发展经济学。只要对宏观经济学有所贡献，这些领域的论文也受到欢迎。

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics

In 1961, Nicholas Kaldor highlighted six “stylized” facts to summarize the patterns that economists had discovered in national income accounts and to shape the growth models being developed to explain them. Redoing this exercise today shows just how much progress we have made. In contrast to Kaldor's facts, which revolved around a single state variable, physical capital, our updated facts force consideration of four far more interesting variables: ideas, institutions, population, and human capital. Dynamic models have uncovered subtle interactions among these variables, generating important insights about such big questions as: Why has growth accelerated? Why are there gains from trade? (JEL D01, E01, E22, E23, E24, J11)

Charles I. Jones

Paul M. Romer

American Economic Journal Macroeconomics

The New Kaldor Facts: Ideas, Institutions, Population, and Human Capital

Population aging is expected to slow US economic growth. We use variation in the predetermined component of population aging across states to estimate the impact of aging on growth in GDP per capita for 1980–2010. We find that each 10 percent increase in the fraction of the population age 60+ decreased per capita GDP by 5.5 percent. One-third of the reduction arose from slower employment growth; two-thirds due to slower labor productivity growth. Labor compensation and wages also declined in response. Our estimate implies population aging reduced the growth rate in GDP per capita by 0.3 percentage points per year during 1980–2010. (JEL E23, E24, J11, J14, J31, O47)

Nicole Maestas

Kathleen J. Mullen

David Powell

The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force, and Productivity

人口老龄化对经济增长、劳动力和生产率的影响

We show that the estimated effect of digital euro news on bank stock valuations and lending depends on the bank’s deposit reliance and the central bank digital currency (CBDC) design features. Using a quantitative DSGE model calibrated to the euro area economy that replicates such evidence, we find that CBDC issuance yields nontrivial welfare trade-offs between, on one side, the positive expansion of liquidity services and the improved stabilization of deposit funding and lending and, on the other side, a negative bank disintermediation effect. The optimal amount of CBDC lies between 15 and 45 percent of quarterly GDP. (JEL E23, E42, E58, F33, G14, G21)

Lorenzo Burlon

Manuel A. Muñoz

Frank Smets

The Optimal Quantity of CBDC in a Bank-Based Economy

基于银行经济体系中CBDC的最佳数量

How does sustainable consumption depend on productivity growth, the size and growth rate of the population, and uncertainty over these growth rates? I address these questions using a model in which productivity and population growth are stochastic and human lives can have (positive or negative) intrinsic social value. I show how sustainable consumption depends on expected rates of productivity and population growth, the volatility of those rates, and the dependence of welfare on population. For plausible parameter values, sustainable consumption is well below the optimal welfare-maximizing level. This raises a question: given its cost, should sustainability be a social objective? (JEL E21, E22, E23, J11, Q01)

Robert S. Pindyck

Population, Productivity, and Sustainable Consumption

人口、生产力与可持续消费

Over the past six decades, fertility rates have fallen dramatically in most middle- and low-income countries. To analyze these developments, we study a quantitative model of endogenous human capital and fertility choice, augmented to allow for social norms over family size. We parametrize the model using data on socioeconomic variables and information on funding for population-control policies aimed at affecting social norms and improving access to contraceptives. We simulate the implementation of population-control policies to gauge their contribution to the decline in fertility. We find that policies aimed at altering family-size norms accelerated and strengthened the decline in fertility, which would have otherwise taken place much more gradually. (JEL J10, J13, J18, J24, O15, Z13)

Tiloka de Silva

Silvana Tenreyro

The Fall in Global Fertility: A Quantitative Model

全球生育率下降：一个定量模型

We study the effects of restrictions on the length of the workweek under the President’s Reemployment Agreement (PRA) of July 1933 and the National Industrial Recovery Act. We construct a model in which the equilibrium without such a workweek restriction has an inefficiently low level of employment. We find that employment rose by about 24 percent in the month following the imposition of the workweek restriction. Industries with longer workweeks pre-PRA experienced 9.4 percent faster growth in hourly earnings post-PRA, but this increase was not sufficient to prevent a relative fall in weekly earnings in these industries. (JEL E24, E32, J22, J31, N12, N31)

Price Fishback

Chris Vickers

Nicolas L. Ziebarth

Labor Market Effects of Workweek Restrictions: Evidence from the Great Depression

工作周限制的劳动力市场效应：来自大萧条的证据

We provide a new Keynesian model where entrepreneurs face uninsurable idiosyncratic investment risk and credit constraints. Government bonds provide liquidity services. Multiple steady states with positive values of public debt can be supported for a given permanent deficit-to-output ratio. The steady-state interest rates are lower than the economic growth rate, and public debt contains a bubble component. We analyze the determinacy regions of policy parameter space and find that a large set of monetary and fiscal policy parameters can achieve debt and inflation stability given persistent fiscal deficits both away from and at the zero interest rate lower bound. (JEL E12, E23, E31, E43, E52, E62, H63)

Jianjun Miao

Dongling Su

Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interactions in a Model with Low Interest Rates

低利率模型中的财政与货币政策互动

We examine whether, as countries become more economically dependent on a trade partner, they realign politically toward that trade partner. We use network measures of economic exposure to foreign productivity growth derived from the class of trade models with a constant trade elasticity. We establish causality using two different sources of quasi-experimental variation: China’s emergence into the global economy and the reduction in the cost of air travel over time. In both cases, we find that increased economic friendship causes increased political friendship and that our theory-based network measures dominate simpler measures of trading relationships between countries. (JEL D72, E23, F14, F15, F53, O19, P33)

Benny Kleinman

Ernest Liu

Stephen J. Redding

International Friends and Enemies

国际友人与敌手

We study the global trade network and quantify its trade and welfare impact. We document that the trade network is a hub-and-spoke system where 80 percent of trade is shipped indirectly and largely via entrepôts—major hubs that facilitate trade between many origins and destinations. We estimate indirect-shipping-consistent trade costs using a model where shipments can be sent indirectly through an endogenous transport network and develop a geography-based instrument to estimate scale economies in shipping. Network and scale effects propagate local trade cost changes globally. Counterfactual infrastructure improvements at entrepôts generate ten times the global welfare impact relative to nonentrepôts. (JEL F12, F14, L92)

Abbreviation	Am. Econ. J. Macroecon.
Journal Impact	6.26
Quartiles(Global)	ECONOMICS(Q1)

ISSN	1945-7707, 1945-7715
h-index	81
Top Journals	Yes

Publication Information	Publisher: American Economic Association，Publishing cycle: ，Journal Type: journal，Open Access Journals: No
Basic data	Year of publication: 2009，Proportion of original research papers: 100.00%，Self Citation Rate:3.20%， Gold OA Rate: 0.00%

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics

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The New Kaldor Facts: Ideas, Institutions, Population, and Human Capital

The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force, and Productivity

The Optimal Quantity of CBDC in a Bank-Based Economy

Population, Productivity, and Sustainable Consumption

The Fall in Global Fertility: A Quantitative Model

Labor Market Effects of Workweek Restrictions: Evidence from the Great Depression

Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interactions in a Model with Low Interest Rates

The Optimal Quantity of CBDC in a Bank-Based Economy

International Friends and Enemies

Entrepôt: Hubs, Scale, and Trade Costs