American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics focuses on studies of aggregate fluctuations and growth, and the role of policy in that context. Such studies often borrow from and interact with research in other fields, such as monetary theory, industrial organization, finance, labor economics, political economy, public finance, international economics, and development economics. To the extent that they make a contribution to macroeconomics, papers in these fields are also welcome.

The American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics focuses on the study of aggregate fluctuations and growth, as well as the role of policy within that context. Such studies often draw from and interact with research in other fields, including monetary theory, industrial organization, finance, labor economics, political economy, public finance, international economics, and development economics. Papers from these fields are also welcome, provided they contribute to the field of macroeconomics.

《American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics》专注于研究总体波动与增长以及政策在其中的作用。这类研究通常借鉴并与其他领域的研究相互交融，如货币理论、产业组织、金融、劳动经济学、政治经济学、公共财政、国际经济学和发展经济学。只要对宏观经济学有所贡献，这些领域的论文也受到欢迎。

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics

We argue that the threat of automation weakens workers’ bargaining power in wage negotiations, dampening wage adjustments and amplifying unemployment fluctuations. We make this argument based on a business cycle model with labor market search frictions, generalized to incorporate automation decisions. In the model, procyclical automation threats create endogenous real wage rigidity that amplifies labor market fluctuations. The automation mechanism is consistent with empirical evidence. It is also quantitatively important for explaining the large volatilities of unemployment and vacancies relative to that of real wages, a puzzling observation through the lens of standard business cycle models. (JEL E13, E24, E32, J31, J63, J64)

Sylvain Leduc

Zheng Liu

American Economic Journal Macroeconomics

Automation, Bargaining Power, and Labor Market Fluctuations

自动化、议价能力和劳动力市场波动

Financial liberalization increases growth, but leads to more crises and costly bailouts. We present a two-sector model in which liberalization, by allowing debt-denomination mismatch, relaxes borrowing limits in the financially constrained sector, but endogenously generates crisis risk. When regulation restricts external financing to standard debt, liberalization preserves financial discipline and may increase allocative efficiency, growth, and consumption possibilities. By contrast, under unfettered liberalization that also allows uncollateralized option-like liabilities, discipline breaks down, and efficiency falls. The model yields a testable gains-from-liberalization condition, which holds in emerging markets. It also helps rationalize the contrasting experience of emerging markets and the recent US housing crisis. (JEL E23, E44, G01, G21, G28, O41, R31)

Romain Rancière

Aaron Tornell

Financial Liberalization, Debt Mismatch, Allocative Efficiency, and Growth

金融自由化、债务错配、配置效率与增长

We propose a theory of unemployment fluctuations in which new hires and incumbent workers are imperfect substitutes. Hence, attempts to hire away the unemployed during recessions diminish the marginal product of new hires, discouraging job creation. This single feature achieves a tenfold increase in the volatility of hiring in an otherwise standard search model, produces a realistic Beveridge curve despite countercyclical separations, and explains 30–40 percent of US unemployment fluctuations. Additionally, it explains the excess procyclicality of new hires’ wages, the cyclical labor wedge, countercyclical earnings losses from job displacement, and the limited steady-state effects of unemployment insurance. (JEL E24, E32, J22, J23, J31, J63)

Yusuf Mercan

Benjamin Schoefer

Petr Sedláček

A Congestion Theory of Unemployment Fluctuations

失业波动拥堵理论

We investigate the impact of fiscal expansions on firm investment by exploiting firms with multiple banking relationships. Further, we conduct a localized approach and compare the lending behavior of banks that barely met and missed the criteria of being a primary dealer, as well as barely winners and losers at government auctions. Our results indicate that a 1 percentage point increase in primary dealer banks’ bonds-to-assets ratio decreases loans by 0.2 percent, which leads to declines in firm investment, profits, and wages. Our findings are grounded in a quantitative model with which we compute the cost of borrowing on the economy. (JEL D22, E12, E23, G21, G32, H63, O11)

Yasin Kürşsat Önder

Sara Restrepo-Tamayo

Maria Alejandra Ruiz-Sanchez

Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas

Government Borrowing and Crowding Out

政府借贷与挤出效应

We argue that credit constraints not only amplify fundamental shocks, they can also lead to self-fulfilling business cycles. We study a model with heterogeneous firms, in which imperfect contract enforcement implies that productive firms face binding credit constraints, with the borrowing capacity limited by expected equity value. A drop in equity value tightens credit constraints and reallocates resources from productive to unproductive firms. Such reallocation reduces aggregate productivity, further depresses equity value, generating a financial multiplier. Aggregate dynamics are isomorphic to those in a representative-agent economy with increasing returns. For sufficiently tight credit constraints, the model generates self-fulfilling business cycles. (JEL E13, E32, E44)

Pengfei Wang

Credit Constraints and Self-Fulfilling Business Cycles

信贷约束与自我实现的商业周期

We study the effects of restrictions on the length of the workweek under the President’s Reemployment Agreement (PRA) of July 1933 and the National Industrial Recovery Act. We construct a model in which the equilibrium without such a workweek restriction has an inefficiently low level of employment. We find that employment rose by about 24 percent in the month following the imposition of the workweek restriction. Industries with longer workweeks pre-PRA experienced 9.4 percent faster growth in hourly earnings post-PRA, but this increase was not sufficient to prevent a relative fall in weekly earnings in these industries. (JEL E24, E32, J22, J31, N12, N31)

Price Fishback

Chris Vickers

Nicolas L. Ziebarth

Labor Market Effects of Workweek Restrictions: Evidence from the Great Depression

工作周限制的劳动力市场效应：来自大萧条的证据

We provide a new Keynesian model where entrepreneurs face uninsurable idiosyncratic investment risk and credit constraints. Government bonds provide liquidity services. Multiple steady states with positive values of public debt can be supported for a given permanent deficit-to-output ratio. The steady-state interest rates are lower than the economic growth rate, and public debt contains a bubble component. We analyze the determinacy regions of policy parameter space and find that a large set of monetary and fiscal policy parameters can achieve debt and inflation stability given persistent fiscal deficits both away from and at the zero interest rate lower bound. (JEL E12, E23, E31, E43, E52, E62, H63)

Jianjun Miao

Dongling Su

Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interactions in a Model with Low Interest Rates

低利率模型中的财政与货币政策互动

We show that the estimated effect of digital euro news on bank stock valuations and lending depends on the bank’s deposit reliance and the central bank digital currency (CBDC) design features. Using a quantitative DSGE model calibrated to the euro area economy that replicates such evidence, we find that CBDC issuance yields nontrivial welfare trade-offs between, on one side, the positive expansion of liquidity services and the improved stabilization of deposit funding and lending and, on the other side, a negative bank disintermediation effect. The optimal amount of CBDC lies between 15 and 45 percent of quarterly GDP. (JEL E23, E42, E58, F33, G14, G21)

Lorenzo Burlon

Manuel A. Muñoz

Frank Smets

The Optimal Quantity of CBDC in a Bank-Based Economy

基于银行经济体系中CBDC的最佳数量

We examine whether, as countries become more economically dependent on a trade partner, they realign politically toward that trade partner. We use network measures of economic exposure to foreign productivity growth derived from the class of trade models with a constant trade elasticity. We establish causality using two different sources of quasi-experimental variation: China’s emergence into the global economy and the reduction in the cost of air travel over time. In both cases, we find that increased economic friendship causes increased political friendship and that our theory-based network measures dominate simpler measures of trading relationships between countries. (JEL D72, E23, F14, F15, F53, O19, P33)

Benny Kleinman

Ernest Liu

Stephen J. Redding

International Friends and Enemies

国际友人与敌手

We study the global trade network and quantify its trade and welfare impact. We document that the trade network is a hub-and-spoke system where 80 percent of trade is shipped indirectly and largely via entrepôts—major hubs that facilitate trade between many origins and destinations. We estimate indirect-shipping-consistent trade costs using a model where shipments can be sent indirectly through an endogenous transport network and develop a geography-based instrument to estimate scale economies in shipping. Network and scale effects propagate local trade cost changes globally. Counterfactual infrastructure improvements at entrepôts generate ten times the global welfare impact relative to nonentrepôts. (JEL F12, F14, L92)

短名	Am. Econ. J. Macroecon.
Journal Impact	6.26
国际分区	ECONOMICS(Q1)
期刊索引	SCI Q1中科院 1 区

ISSN	1945-7707, 1945-7715
h-index	81
国内分区	经济学(1区)经济学经济学(1区)
Top 期刊	是

涉及主题	经济宏观经济学业务数学货币经济学政治学法学凯恩斯经济学财务计量经济学市场经济计算机科学物理地理微观经济学哲学经济增长统计货币政策工程类历史劳动经济学考古生物医学社会学量子力学
出版信息	出版商: American Economic Association，出版周期: ，期刊类型: journal，开源期刊: 否
基本数据	创刊年份: 2009，原创研究文献占比: 100.00%，自引率:3.20%， Gold OA占比: 0.00%

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics

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