Foresight Russia

The development of online communication platforms has given rise to the phenomenon of the gig economy. A new economic model that embraces a variety of forms of short-term employment is rapidly spreading around the world, becoming an everyday reality and transforming the labor market. The article analyzes the factors influencing the dynamics of this process and its main effects. Testing the main hypothesis showed that the development of technological infrastructure, despite its importance, does not fully explain the unevenness of the penetration of the gig economy and the variations in its impact upon different sectors, professions, and skill levels. Gig economy drivers are subject to further study, but already now we can state the need for targeted measures to adapt the economy to the new model, including retraining or creating alternative employment opportunities for “traditional” workers giving up jobs in favor of gig-employed ones.

Nilanjan Banik

Milind Padalkar

Foresight-Russia

Foresight and STI Governance

The Spread of Gig Economy: Trends and Effects

零工经济的蔓延：趋势与影响

This paper offers a broad view on foreseeing innovation, which is not limited solely to early detection at the micro level. The author defines innovations as ongoing processes of changes in the various fields of social and economic life, which result from human creative activity. Noting that innovation is an uncertain, relatively chaotic, and disordered process characterized by inherent risks, the author aims to define the most general and universal barriers impeding one’s ability to recognize the signs of future innovation and to anticipate their consequences. Considering examples of «disruptive innovation» in the technological, social, political, and economic spheres of life, the author sees these innovations as arising from certain condition and events, not as simple random occurences. Most of them are effects of particular causes. However, these causes are often hidden within events that are difficult to observe and phenomena encapsulated in weak signals. The inability to detect and recognize such pre-emerging warnings of upcoming innovations may be attributed to the massive amount of information signals and noise flooding today’s world. This problem is excaerbated by the lack of knowledge, techniques, and experience for dealing with huge amounts of information, the lack of the required skills, and, finally, by human cognitive biases. Faced with this deluge of misinformation, any person can eventually be misled and make mistakes. This paper posits that, in order to mitigate such risks, an individual must avoid the three cognitive biases: the symmetry of delusions, aggressive neglect, and the curse of knowledge. These cognitive biases are the barriers to foreseeing innovation.

Vladimir Milovidov

Hearing the Sound of the Wave: What Impedes One’s Ability to Foresee Innovations?

听浪之声：何物阻碍人们预见创新？

This paper proposes a knowledge co-creation roadmapping tool for knowledge creation in future-oriented discussions for members of competing firms with the aim of co-creatively envisioning the future of the industry. This approach adapts the roadmapping method to knowledge creation, thus building a communication infrastructure for discussing future plans beyond an organization (i.e., participants are from competing companies). Knowledge co-creation roadmapping could be commissioned to an open industry organization consisting of members sent by individual companies interested in overcoming obstacles to development. We put our method into practice with the subcommittee of the Engineering Advancement Association of Japan and set the subject as “The Future of Smart Social Infrastructure”, a theme involving multiple stakeholders. We were able to draw up a vision of smart technology on the basis of the insights gained through the roadmapping activities. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in terms of acquiring knowledge that could not be obtained by our own company or a single industry organization alone.

Hisashi Murata

Kotaro Nakamura

Kunio Shirahada

Knowledge Co-Creation Roadmapping for Future Industrial Visions: Case Study on Smart Infrastructure

未来工业愿景的知识共创路线图：智能基础设施案例研究

Technology roadmapping has become an important foresight tool for science, technology, and innovation (STI) policy and technology strategy development. There are, however, challenges in translating evidence from foresight into the strategies of STI agencies and the planning of research &amp; technology development (RTD) organizations. While the foresight evaluation literature identifies methodological issues related to evidence granularity, scope, and stakeholder confidence, there is limited guidance on how to ensure roadmapping outputs are strategically relevant, appropriately detailed, and credible. This paper highlights the potential of using structured visual roadmapping frameworks to anticipate potential strategic foresight evidence failures and using the adaptive and iterative nature of roadmapping processes to address them. In this paper, we distinguish between: the roadmapping framework ‘canvas’; the foresight evidence captured on the canvas; the process of generating the evidence; and any final strategic plan developed using that evidence (with goals, milestones, actions, etc). We investigate efforts to use the roadmapping canvas as a research tool and diagnostic to explore emerging technology trajectories and innovation ‘pathways’. We demonstrate that key patterns of evidence distribution on the roadmapping canvas have the potential to reveal where further evidence may need to be gathered, or where further triangulation of stakeholder perspectives may be required. We argue that by adaptively addressing these patterns at key stages within the roadmapping process (and appropriately re-scoping, re-prioritizing, and re-focusing foresight effort and resources), the granularity, coverage, and consensus of the roadmapping evidence can be greatly enhanced. We conclude the paper by summarizing a set of novel principles for adaptive agile roadmapping, reflecting on the implications for foresight more generally, and outlining a future research agenda to test and refine this approach to agile foresight.

Eoin O’Sullivan

Rob Phaal

Charles Featherston

Agile Roadmapping: An Adaptive Approach to Technology Foresight

敏捷路线图：一种适应性技术前瞻方法

This guest editorial article introduces contextual and theoretical frameworks of foresight and futures studies’ methodology. Outstanding questions relating to methodological development are then addressed. This is followed by an introduction to five papers that make important methodological contributions. The article ends by a call for further research on the questions that have been identified, but remain unanswered.

Yusuke Kishita

Foresight and Roadmapping Methodology: Trends and Outlook

远见与路线图方法论：趋势与展望

In recent years, more and more generic technologies have appeared, allowing one to find answers simultaneously along different dimensions, “fan” solutions for urgent and complex problems are synthesized and cumulative effects emerge. This article analyzes the potential of such technologies using the example of mobile health (mHealth), which provides rapid access to medical services even in the most remote regions, mitigating the inequalities between different segments of the population in this regard. The implementation of mobile health becomes especially important in the context of the rapid spread of chronic and autoimmune diseases, which strongly impact the quality and duration of life. Smart applications based on AI and virtual reality provide the opportunity to manage one’s health by combining patient self-monitoring with rapid consultations with medical staff. By doing so, risks are reduced and physiological and mental well-being is enhanced. This article conducts a large-scale literature review of diabetes management techniques through mobile technology to systematize and identify the most advanced solutions. For such innovations to maximize their impact, public health policies must be aligned with a digitalization strategy.

Pedro F. Castillo-Valdez

Marisela Rodríguez-Salvador

Yuh-Shan Ho

Research Landscape of Diabetes mHealth Technologies

糖尿病移动健康技术研究现状

The study aims to empirically demonstrate and conceptually interpret the manifestations of an emerging approach to the issues of human capital, its measurement and development on the international academic, expert, and corporate agenda. We document a gradual shift from a focus on individual skills, their measurement and development, to an approach that considers the complexity of human capital and emphasizes holistic individual activity and the proactive role of the individual in his/her human development and in transforming the corporate environment.The authors show that the formation of this novel approach can be associated with new trends in socio-economic development, including the growing share of non-routine jobs, the transformation of work formats and broader processes of de-structuration, which require a proactive role of the individual in the maintenance and development of social structures, including business organizations. The study has shown that the formation of this new approach occurs gradually and simultaneously at the global level on the academic, expert, and corporate agendas, but with varying degrees of intensity and with different focuses. At the same time, it is the corporate agenda that can be regarded as a frontier. This study is based on a content analysis of academic publications, expert reports of international organizations and think tanks, as well as public reports and documents of the world’s leading innovative companies. The research employs the Big Data intelligence system iFORA.

Pavel Sorokin

Vera Maltseva

From Discrete Skills to Holistic Creative Human Potential: An Emerging Approach in Theory and Practice

从离散技能到整体创造性人类潜能：理论与实践中的新兴方法

Government and public sector demand from the perspective of demand-push policies as a tool of technology and innovation policy have been discussed in detail in the literature. Policymakers have always considered advantages such as promoting local production goals, reducing imports and dependence upon foreign countries, and meeting domestic needs with technology development and innovation. In Iran such policies have been designed and implemented and can be classified into two categories: horizontal and vertical policies. Horizontal policies refer to policy programs that regulate the general government market and the public sector. In vertical policies, however, government demand in a particular product area is regulated. In order to analyze the different types of application of these policies in Iran, several cases of horizontal and vertical policies have been studied and compared in this article. From the horizontal policies, the law of maximum use of domestic power and Foreign Finance Credit have been selected. Among the vertical policies, the policy of 10 basic oil products and the experience of the Iran-Lab-Expo have been examined. Attempts have been made to analyze and compare the above policies based on the general pattern of government programs to stimulate government demand for technology and innovation. Finally, the lessons learned from Iran’s policy experiences in the field of public sector demand orientation as a tool of technology and innovation policy are described.

Mohammad Reza Attarpour

Maysam Narimani

Mahdi Elyasi

Akbar Mohammadi

Public Procurement Policies to Foster Innovation Development

促进创新发展的公共采购政策

With the expansion of the scope of foresight research, the role and importance of various participants in the relevant projects and the users of their results - stakeholders - simultaneously increase. Whereas previously a significant part of foresight projects were carried out with the involvement of professional experts, in many recent studies the circle of their participants is becoming more diverse and an increasing role belongs to members of the public and other potential beneficiaries. This article explores the theory and best practices of applying the stakeholder analysis method in foresight projects, and an attempt is made to systematically characterize this approach. The place and role of various stakeholders in foresight projects are considered, the main problems, opportunities, and recommendations for using the method are assessed, and the features of its application in conjunction with other foresight methods are characterized.

Natalia Veselitskaya

Sergey Shashnov

Stakeholders and Their Participation in Foresight Projects

利益相关者及其在远景项目中的参与

There are no universal rules for improving the contribution of universities to the development of regional innovation systems. Much depends upon the context of the country, resources of a specific region and socio-cultural specifics. This article explores the given topic using the example of a technological university in India, located in a large region with established traditions and a culture of production. In the implementation of the third mission of the university, a special proxy-organization played a key role, providing effective communication between stakeholders, the involvement of different segments of the population in the innovation system and joint development of technologies. The authors propose an interactive model that allows universities to develop new technological solutions for enterprises.

短名	FR
Journal Impact	1.00
国际分区	MANAGEMENT(Q4)

涉及主题	计算机科学业务政治学经济法学数学哲学
出版信息	出版商: Higher School of Economics, National Research University，出版周期: ，期刊类型: journal，开源期刊: 是
基本数据	创刊年份: 2007，原创研究文献占比: 100.00%，自引率:10.00%， Gold OA占比: 94.51%
平均审稿周期	网友分享经验：25 Weeks

Foresight Russia

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