Forecasting

In today’s evolving global world, the pharmaceutical sector faces an emerging challenge, which is the rapid surge of the global population and the consequent growth in drug production demands. Recognizing this, our study explores the urgent need to strengthen pharmaceutical production capacities, ensuring drugs are allocated and stored strategically to meet diverse regional and demographic needs. Summarizing our key findings, our research focuses on the promising area of drug demand forecasting using artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) techniques to enhance predictions in the pharmaceutical field. Supplied with a rich dataset from Kaggle spanning 600,000 sales records from a singular pharmacy, our study embarks on a thorough exploration of univariate time series analysis. Here, we pair conventional analytical tools such as ARIMA with advanced methodologies like LSTM neural networks, all with a singular vision: refining the precision of our sales. Venturing deeper, our data underwent categorisation and were segmented into eight clusters premised on the ATC Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) Classification System framework. This segmentation unravels the evident influence of seasonality on drug sales. The analysis not only highlights the effectiveness of machine learning models but also illuminates the remarkable success of XGBoost. This algorithm outperformed traditional models, achieving the lowest MAPE values: 17.89% for M01AB (anti-inflammatory and antirheumatic products, non-steroids, acetic acid derivatives, and related substances), 16.92% for M01AE (anti-inflammatory and antirheumatic products, non-steroids, and propionic acid derivatives), 17.98% for N02BA (analgesics, antipyretics, and anilides), and 16.05% for N02BE (analgesics, antipyretics, pyrazolones, and anilides). XGBoost further demonstrated exceptional precision with the lowest MSE scores: 28.8 for M01AB, 1518.56 for N02BE, and 350.84 for N05C (hypnotics and sedatives). Additionally, the Seasonal Naïve model recorded an MSE of 49.19 for M01AE, while the Single Exponential Smoothing model showed an MSE of 7.19 for N05B. These findings underscore the strengths derived from employing a diverse range of approaches within the forecasting series. In summary, our research accentuates the significance of leveraging machine learning techniques to derive valuable insights for pharmaceutical companies. By applying the power of these methods, companies can optimize their production, storage, distribution, and marketing practices.

Konstantinos P. Fourkiotis

Athanasios Tsadiras

Applying Machine Learning and Statistical Forecasting Methods for Enhancing Pharmaceutical Sales Predictions

应用机器学习和统计预测方法提升药品销售预测

The rising frequency and severity of droughts requires accurate monitoring and forecasting to reduce the impact on water resources and communities. This study aims to investigate drought monitoring and categorization, while enhancing drought forecasting by using three machine learning models—Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Random Forest (RF). The models were trained on the study region’s historic precipitation and temperature data (minimum and maximum) from 1960 to 2021. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were computed for a time scale of 3, 6 and 12 months. The monthly precipitation data were used for creating lag scenarios and were used as input features for the models to improve the models’ performance and reduce overfitting. Statistical parameters like the coefficient of determination (R2), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root mean square error (RMSE) and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) were determined to evaluate the model accuracy. For forecasting, the SPEI3, ANN and SVM models show better performance (R2 &gt; 0.9) than the RF models when the 3-month lag data were used as input features. For SPEI6 and SPEI12, the 6-month lag and 12-month lag data, respectively, were needed to increase the models’ accuracy. The models exhibited RMSE values of 0.27 for ANN, 0.28 for SVM, and 0.37 for RF for the SPEI3, indicating the superior performance of the former two. The models’ accuracy increases as the lag period increases for SPI forecasting. Overall, the ANN and SVM models outperformed the RF model for forecasting long-term drought.

Bishal Poudel

Dewasis Dahal

Mandip Banjara

Ajay Kalra

Assessing Meteorological Drought Patterns and Forecasting Accuracy with SPI and SPEI Using Machine Learning Models

评估气象干旱模式及预测准确性：基于机器学习模型的SPI和SPEI应用

This paper focuses on analyzing the relationship between the financial performance of companies and their ability to utilize modern business methods. Financial analysis was conducted using the example of the automobile manufacturer Škoda Auto, with the results providing deeper insights into the company’s financial situation. The companies examined in this study were scored and underwent regression and cluster analyses. A questionnaire focusing on the modernity of advertising in selected companies was answered by 276 respondents. Based on the findings, a model for evaluating the modernity and stability of companies was developed, combining various factors including financial indicators and the adoption of modern technologies. The results indicate that there is a relationship between financial performance and the modernization of companies, although this relationship is not always straightforward. In particular, the operating profit and current ratio emerged as important factors influencing modernization. Overall, it can be concluded that the financial performance and modernization of companies are interconnected, but their relationship is complex and requires further investigation. This paper is an important contribution to understanding company modernization and sets the stage for further studies on this issue.

Maria Kovacova

Eva Kalinova

Pavol Durana

Katarina Frajtova Michalikova

Synergy of Modern Analytics and Innovative Managerial Decision-Making in the Turbulent and Uncertain New Normal

现代分析与创新管理决策在新常态动荡与不确定环境中的协同作用

This study introduces a methodology for labor market foresight through alternative futures. It discusses three alternative scenarios for managerial roles, each exploring varying levels of technological advancement and economic growth, to provide insights into the evolving demands for managerial roles. By drafting a diversified skill portfolio, it is argued that employability skills for managers concern providing education in a combination of areas, such as new technologies, trend analysis, and strategic foresight based on the sector in which the firm operates, negotiation skills and human resources management, contemporary sales techniques, entrepreneurship, and personal growth, including time management, creativity, public speaking skills, and foresight skills. Utilizing responses obtained through an online survey administered in Greece during 2024 to managers and employing principal component analysis (PCA), we establish correlations between skill portfolio composition preferences, foresight analysis, and design of diversified skill portfolios. Diversified skill portfolios are a holistic approach to training, reskilling, and upskilling, including an optimum combination of foundational, complex, digital, green, and always case-fit per occupation or sector of economic activity. Consequently, the insights derived from this study offer a microeconomic perspective regarding the optimal combination of skills for managerial occupations and a macroeconomic perspective concerning the formulation of future training policies for human capital development.

Anna-Maria Kanzola

Panagiotis E. Petrakis

A Foresight Framework for the Labor Market with Special Reference to Managerial Roles—Toward Diversified Skill Portfolios

劳动力市场前瞻性框架——特别参考管理角色——迈向多元化技能组合

Research shows that Google Trend indices can improve tourism-demand forecasts. Given the impact of the recent pandemic, this may prove to be an important predictor of tourism recovery in countries that are still struggling to recover, including South Africa. The purpose of this paper is firstly, to build on previous research that indicates that Google Trends improves tourism-demand forecasting by testing this within the context of tourism recovery. Secondly, this paper extends previous research by not only including Google Trends in time-series forecasting models but also typical tourism-demand covariates in an econometric specification. Finally, we test the performance of Google Trends in forecasting over a longer time period, because the destination country is a long-haul destination where more lead time may be required in decision-making. Additionally, this research contributes to the body of knowledge by including lower frequency data (quarterly) instead of the higher frequency data commonly used in current research, while also focusing on an important destination country in Africa. Due to the differing data frequencies, the MIDAS modelling approach is used. The MIDAS models are compared to typical time-series and naïve benchmarks. The findings show that monthly Google Trends improve forecasts on lower frequency data. Furthermore, forecasts that include Google Trends are more effective in forecasting one to two quarters ahead, pre-COVID. This trend changed after COVID, when Google Trends led to improved recovery forecasts even over a longer term.

Ilsé Botha

Andrea Saayman

Does Google Analytics Improve the Prediction of Tourism Demand Recovery?

谷歌分析能否提升旅游需求复苏预测的准确性？

Using data that cover the annual period from 1258 to 2023, we studied the link between real gold returns and climate risks. We documented a positive contemporaneous link and a negative predictive link. Our findings further show that the predictive link historically gave rise to significant out-of-sample forecasting gains. The positive contemporaneous link is consistent with the view that investors viewed gold as a safe haven in times of elevated climate risks. The negative predictive link, in turn, is consistent with an overshooting scenario in which the real gold price overshot in response to climate risks, only to return subsequently to a lower value. Our findings should provide important implications for investors and policymakers, given that our analysis covered the longest possible data sample involving the gold market, and hence, was independent of any sample selection bias.

Rangan Gupta

Anandamayee Majumdar

Christian Pierdzioch

Onur Polat

Climate Risks and Real Gold Returns over 750 Years

750年来气候风险与实际黄金回报

This paper aims to demonstrate how machine deep learning techniques lead to relatively accurate forecasts of quarterly corporate income tax payments. Using quarterly data from Compustat for all U.S. publicly traded corporations from 2000 to 2024, I show that neural nets, the tree method, and random forest models provide robust forecasts despite their encompassing COVID-19 pandemic time periods. The results should be of interest to corporate tax planners, stock analysts, and governments.

Charles Swenson

Using Machine Deep Learning AI to Improve Forecasting of Tax Payments for Corporations

利用机器深度学习人工智能提升企业纳税预测

短名	Forecasting
Journal Impact	2.40
国际分区	MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES(Q2)

ISSN	2571-9394
h-index	15

涉及主题	经济业务计算机科学数学政治学法学工程类财务哲学统计地理物理营销微观经济学生物管理历史考古认识论机器学习人工智能量子力学宏观经济学计量经济学
出版信息	出版商: Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)，出版周期: ，期刊类型: journal，开源期刊: 是
基本数据	创刊年份: 2019，原创研究文献占比: 96.36%，自引率:4.30%， Gold OA占比: 99.29%
期刊费用	$详情
平均审稿周期	网友分享经验：11 Weeks

Forecasting

期刊引文格式

有 1 位以上作者的期刊

有 2 位作者的期刊

有 3 位作者的期刊

有 5 位以上作者的期刊

书籍引用格式

学位论文引用格式

网页引用格式

专利引用格式

手工熬夜修改参考文献？研飞自动匹配期刊，一键轻松成稿，支持 Word/WPS

投稿经验分享

Applying Machine Learning and Statistical Forecasting Methods for Enhancing Pharmaceutical Sales Predictions

Assessing Meteorological Drought Patterns and Forecasting Accuracy with SPI and SPEI Using Machine Learning Models

Synergy of Modern Analytics and Innovative Managerial Decision-Making in the Turbulent and Uncertain New Normal

A Foresight Framework for the Labor Market with Special Reference to Managerial Roles—Toward Diversified Skill Portfolios

Does Google Analytics Improve the Prediction of Tourism Demand Recovery?

Assessing Meteorological Drought Patterns and Forecasting Accuracy with SPI and SPEI Using Machine Learning Models

Synergy of Modern Analytics and Innovative Managerial Decision-Making in the Turbulent and Uncertain New Normal

A Foresight Framework for the Labor Market with Special Reference to Managerial Roles—Toward Diversified Skill Portfolios

Climate Risks and Real Gold Returns over 750 Years

Using Machine Deep Learning AI to Improve Forecasting of Tax Payments for Corporations