Bulletin of Atmospheric Science and Technology

Abstract In Nigeria, particularly in urban areas like Lagos, flooding is a frequent natural hazard. In 2011, Lagos experienced one of its worst floods resulting in significant economic losses and displacement of people. In recent years, Lagos has continued to grapple with flooding challenges, with an equally significant flood episode occurring in 2021. This study focuses on predicting floods and forecasting extremely heavy rainfall in West Africa's equatorial zone using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, particularly in humid tropical environments like Lagos. The study discusses the need to review existing flood models and adopt alternative flood models to address the limitations of flood prediction. As potential causes of these rainfall episodes, the interconnections between synoptic systems such as tropical easterly waves, southwesterly winds related to the West African Monsoon, and local topography and oceanic conditions are investigated. Three key metrics: root mean square error (RMSE), mean bias (MB), and mean absolute error (MAE) are used to assess the effectiveness of the computational model. Results indicate that the WRF model, specifically when using the Thompson parameterisation, can estimate the amount of rainfall accumulated over a 24-h period. This suggests that the model can predict the size of daily precipitation during intense rain events. The Thompson scheme shows better performance compared to the WSM6 scheme while evaluating the stations and episodes. During the rainfall episode on July 10, 2011, Thompson's spatial rainfall predictions were better than WSM6, resulting in a decrease in root mean square error (RMSE) of 15–31% depending on the area. Simulations of the July 2021 episode also show better performance, with a decrease in RMSE of 11–25% when comparing Thompson to WSM6 scheme. The Thompson scheme’s improved ability is directly linked to a more accurate depiction of the microphysical mechanisms that control the rainfall formation. By explicitly simulating the dynamics of ice crystals and graupel, it is possible to accurately replicate the processes of orographic lifting and moist convection that are responsible for driving intense monsoon precipitation. In addition, Thompson scheme shows a reduced degree of systemic bias in comparison to WSM6, with a 75% reduction in the average bias in rainfall accumulation over the research area. The combination of the advanced Thompson microphysics method and WRF's atmospheric dynamics shows a high level of accuracy in predicting intense rainfall and the risk of floods in this area with diverse tropical topography.

Oluwatobi Oyegbile

Andy Chan

Maggie Ooi

Parvez Anwar

Abdullahi Ali Mohamed

Li Li

Evaluation of WRF model performance with different microphysics schemes for extreme rainfall prediction in Lagos, Nigeria: Implications for urban flood risk management

评估WRF模型在尼日利亚拉各斯极端降雨预测中不同微物理方案的性能：对城市洪水风险管理的启示

Nicola Luciano

Alessandra Balzarini

Anna Maria Toppetti

Paolo Omodeo

Guido Pirovano

A comparative analysis of an aerosol dry deposition microscale model for overhead powerlines insulators

架空输电线绝缘子气溶胶干沉积微尺度模型的比较分析

Abstract –WIND RISK is a research project dealing with measurement and modelling of wind fields within thunderstorm cumulonimbus clouds and outflows at the ground (i.e., downbursts and gust fronts). The general objective of the project is to advance the knowledge about the processes occurring inside thunderstorm clouds responsible for strong outflows, and the identification of the environmental (synoptic and meso-scale) conditions favourable to their development. The area under investigation is Northwestern Italy and the Ligurian Sea, which are among the most exposed regions to strong thunderstorms in Europe. Two measurement campaigns using Doppler weather radars and remote-sensing ground-based anemometry, and ad-hoc simulations using the WRF model are carried out to build a database of thunderstorm wind fields with special focus on downdraft and downburst characterization. All measurements and simulations are shared within the scientific community after the end of the project through datasets published on open access platforms.

Massimiliano Burlando

Mario Marcello Miglietta

Elenio Avolio

Renzo Bechini

Federico Cassola

Francesco De Martin

Martina Lagasio

Massimo Milelli

Antonio Parodi

Djordje Romanic

The –WIND RISK project: nowcast and simulation of thunderstorm outflows

“风风险”项目：雷暴出流的临近预报与模拟

Abstract Microclimate conditions in conservation spaces such as museums, galleries, storages, archives, and libraries significantly impact the preservation of cultural materials, potentially leading to permanent damage. This study focuses on quarantine rooms, essential for isolating and inspecting incoming collections for infestations or contamination. Despite their importance, systematic microclimate investigations in such spaces have not been conducted until now. In this research, temperature and relative humidity monitoring has been conducted over the past 3 years (i.e., 2021-2022-2023) within the quarantine room of the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) University Library (located within the DORA I concrete bunker, Trondheim, Norway). Data analysis revealed stable indoor conditions due to the buffering capacity of the massive building envelope together with climate control system. Specific metrics for the estimation of climate-induced chemical and biological risks on vulnerable artifacts were applied to compute the percentage of time for which thermohygrometric conditions could favour cellulose hydrolysis and biodeteriogens proliferation on a yearly basis. In this way, the study provided a decision-making tool useful to evaluate the best time (in terms of safest temperature and relative humidity conditions) when to introduce incoming collections into the quarantine room, depending on the material they are made of and on the timeframe selected for their isolation.

Giulia Boccacci

Francesca Frasca

Chiara Bertolin

Claudio Chimenti

Erlend Lund

Tonje Dahlin Saeter

Anna Maria Siani

Climate-induced risk assessment of the quarantine room in a University Library

大学图书馆检疫室的气候诱导风险评估

Abstract Different spatial scales enable the analysis of thermophysiological conditions of pedestrians in an urban environment. A higher resolution hotspot analysis was conceived using GIS technology in some areas of Lisbon with different morphological conditions. Eleven hotspots were found across six study areas, located in high to moderate urban density conditions and in different types of urban spaces. So, six hotspots were found in avenues (high urban density conditions), three in streets, and two in general open spaces (moderate urban density conditions). These spaces are characterized by being busy areas with high anthropogenic influence, with high-absorbing and reflective materials, and with very poor green infrastructure. Environmental conditions, namely, radiation, mean radiant temperature, and air temperature, were the main cause of hotspot existence, and the main propellers for UTCI intensification. The urban density variable was also found to be important, especially in avenues and open spaces. In these areas, the adjusted component for environmental and urban density conditions can increase 0.60 to 1.35 °C in open spaces and 0.30 to 0.60 °C in avenues, each time there is a one-unit increase in the component. Trees, either in the street or in parks, have generally been found to decrease the UTCI.

Tiago Silva

António Lopes

João Vasconcelos

A micro-scale look into pedestrian thermophysiological comfort in an urban environment

城市环境中行人热生理舒适性的微观尺度研究

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Bulletin of Atmospheric Science and Technology

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Evaluation of WRF model performance with different microphysics schemes for extreme rainfall prediction in Lagos, Nigeria: Implications for urban flood risk management

A comparative analysis of an aerosol dry deposition microscale model for overhead powerlines insulators

The –WIND RISK project: nowcast and simulation of thunderstorm outflows

Climate-induced risk assessment of the quarantine room in a University Library

A micro-scale look into pedestrian thermophysiological comfort in an urban environment

Evaluation of WRF model performance with different microphysics schemes for extreme rainfall prediction in Lagos, Nigeria: Implications for urban flood risk management

A comparative analysis of an aerosol dry deposition microscale model for overhead powerlines insulators

A micro-scale look into pedestrian thermophysiological comfort in an urban environment

Climate-induced risk assessment of the quarantine room in a University Library

The –WIND RISK project: nowcast and simulation of thunderstorm outflows

ISSN	2662-1495, 2662-1509
h-index	8